Let's get down to trick or treating a little early today, shall we?
Here's our Halloween post of 2008:
Is "Mad Men" done?
That got your attention, I hope. It was was meant to.
Now, I'll get to the list of reasons why the greatest show in basic cable history could have just ended, or have ended its run on AMC.
But first, here's my "*" - or caveat emptor. As longtime readers of 'Zone know, I like to go on occasional flights of fancy; I do this to entertain myself, and hopefully a dozen or so faithful readers. What you are about to read is based on no reporting whatsoever, no inside knowledge, foresight, hunch, or blazing burst of insight that came to me in the night.
It's just reading the basic facts, and - in this instance, Nikki Finke's sensational blog post of a few days ago, where she reported that creator Matthew Weiner's reps were demanding for him ten million per year, in addition to control over promotion, which has sent producer Lionsgate scurrying for a new show runner. None of the Main Stream Media has gone after this story yet because it seems so unbelievable. But I believe it completely.
So, here's why "Mad Men" may be gone - and let's all hope I get the press release later today announcing that Weiner has just been signed to a new deal for a third season:
1.) $10 million is insane, particularly in this economy, and everyone knows it's insane. Particularly insane for Lionsgate, which has chewed off nails on both hands and is working on bone awaiting weekend box office returns for "W" and the much-panned "Saw V."
2.) Carl Icahn recently bumped up his stake in Lionsgate, accompanied by the six most dreaded words in the language - "I believe the stock is undervalued." That's sorta like the Texas chainsaw massacre guy saying, "think I'll go down to Home Depot to see if that Black & Decker 18-volt cordless is still on sale..." Icahn is a killer, and the last thing on the planet he would happily endorse is a ten million buck payout to a producer whose show delivers UNDER 1.5 million viewers per outing.
3.) AMC is a commercial network NOT a pay network, so it MUST base compensation on cost-per-thousand, or eyeballs delivered. Even with a huge premium attached because of "upscale" viewers, ten million smackers doesn't add up. It's telling Lionsgate no deal too, I imagine.
4.) No producer in his or her right mind wants to step up to the plate to do this show, because it's so specific to Weiner's vision, which is why we've gotten no announcement. Besides, the superstars would want a bundle too. Whadaya think Fox paid to get J.J. Abrams back to do "Fringe?" (I'm sure right now he's saying, "not enough...")
5.) Weiner's most insane demand is for promotion. No producer gets promotion at a commercial web - it's an unthinkable demand, or as Don Corleone might say, "That I cannot do."
6.) Weiner obviously wants out at Lionsgate and AMC - my speculation - because he does in fact hate the promotion, one of the great drivers of television circulation, and is disgusted with the low ratings, which he probably blames on promotion.
7.) By floating ten million, Weiner's reps have put the big guns in play, notably HBO and Showtime. They WILL pay that kind of money for Weiner, but they'll want "Mad Men" in the bargain.
8.) Aha, Gay - that's the biggest flaw in your reasoning, says you. AMC already HAS "Men" locked and loaded for the next two seasons, along with the entire cast. It just doesn't have Weiner. Here's what I'd say - AMC's interest can be bought out too. All HBO has to do is float a sufficiently large check, and the entire production shifts over there.
9.) Why would Weiner want HBO or Showtime anyway? Here's the best reason of all. At heart, "Mad Men" is NOT a commercial TV show, as good a job as AMC has done. It'd work best as an hour on a pay web, uninterrupted by ads for Viagra or Listermint. I know this for a fact because that's how I've watched the show, either on DVD or Cablevision's On-Demand. The show, frankly, is ruined by commercials.
10.) My last reason - this season's last episode played like a series finale. Of this, I cannot be dissuaded. If "Mad Men" is in fact done, then Weiner can hold his head up and say, "I completed my vision. I'm satisfied."
Of course, hard core fans aren't. Let's hope I get the press release any minute now.