This morning, let's play the late night "what if" game - as in, what if Jay stays, or Dave goes, or Conan does something entirely different or Jon...yes, what about Jon?
We are entering one of those interesting phases of the moon in late night TV, when contracts conclude, and best-laid-plans come to fruition (maybe.) This happens every so often, and the last time - about fifteen years ago - provided enough drama to employ an army of TV writers for a year and (incidentally) finally got CBS on the late night boards for pretty much the first time in its history. This blog entry courtesy of Monday's Broadcasting & Cable scoop which relayed that NBCU bosses were "wining and dining" Jon Stewart recently...
Here are the key players in our board game, and how they might (or might not) move around:
Jay Leno: Rudely forced out by NBC in 2009 - just two years from now - the single most successful player in late night TV since Carson goes over to CBS or ABC to slay the network that slew him. A Conan vs. Jay scenario? Not out of the question at all - even if he did (for some bizarre reason) sign a non-compete that keeps him out of the fray for a year. In this set-up, Conan - youth/urban appeal - almost certainly gets trumped by Jay - older/suburban/"C&D; County" appeal. NBC looks silly. Jay looks smart. Conan wonders if it was worth all the trouble.
David Letterman: Contract ends in 2010, and inconceivable CBS would force him out at that time. Geatest Late Night Host in History (After Carson and Possibly Steve Allen) will almost certainly decide to sign another contract extension. Unless...he doesn't. What could be the reasons for "retirement?" Fatigue? Age? (He'll be 63)? Moving out at the top of his game - guided, as it were, by the ghost hand of Carson himself? Whatever - all idle speculation. No one knows what Dave will do. No one ever will.
The important question is, what will CBS do? To reiterate, inconceivable CBS would move Dave out, but back in '81, it was inconceivable that Walter Cronkite would be moved out for Dan Rather. (Stuff happens in network TV.) In fact, a bunch of stuff could happen between now and then - Leslie Moonves leaves CBS...CBS stock price tanks...another (younger) option presents itself.
Conan: He's in great shape, presumably. But don't forget the wisdom of Lao-Tzu - just when you think everything is peachy, you are about to sail over the edge of the cliff. Always happens. It's the law.
So what could happen to C? Well, NBC could decide to keep Jay, for one. It's called "cold feet" - as in, sorry, we were too hasty. You stay, Jay. Don't let the door hit you on the way out, Conan. Cold? Of course. This is an arctic business, which typically operates at sub-zero temperatures. But why shove out the indisputably brilliant Conan for that reliable long-haul truck driver of late night hosts, Jay? Money - NBC figures it'd be cheaper in the long run to buy out Conan ($40 million) than lose Jay, who could probably hold his numbers through the tumultuous late night landscape for several years to come. In other words, Jay's a sure bet. Conan's not.
What, then, does Conan do? If he's cut lose, that immediately puts pressure on CBS, which has to decide - keep Dave or get Conan? No way Conan's going to 12:30, so 11:30 it is. From an actuarial standpoint, Conan's a better bet than Dave, obviously.
ABC - haven't mentioned them yet! - plays in this game too, because of course Conan-on-the-loose, changes everything - "Nightline's" future and Jimmy K's. Indeed, NBC could decide to keep Jay for the simple reason that if he were to go to ABC/CBS, he'd end up damaging the franchise (Conan and "Tonight") that it's spent more than half a century building. (Fox? Maybe…maybe finally decides to shed its late night curse if Conan becomes available..)
Jon: Finally, the center piece in our board game. Why did NBC "wine and dine" him? Well, wouldn't you, given the opportunity? He's the future - relatively young, supremely talented, and host of a show that refuses to shed a massive and ridiculous amount of goodwill and respect. He's hot, and has been for years.
Does he want to go to a "major network?" He's said "no" before -even if he did once audition for the "Late Night" gig that went to Conan. (But that was sooo many years ago.)
Would he want to go to the 12:30 slot vacated by C? That's called "second fiddle" - a total insult to a guy like this, and I suspect NBC knows it. Besides, 12:30 is for someone in his 30's, maybe even 20s - it's the college crowd time slot. Stewart's got too much cache to settle for that. The only job he'd probably consider is "Tonight" and that's not gonna happen - even in our little board game.
So what's going on? NBC could be covering its bets: If it does keep Jay, then it'll need to fill 12:30, and if it keeps Conan, it'll need to fill 12:30. But what if something really wacky happens: NBC offers to keep Jay at 11:35, and Jay says - to hell with you. I'm outta here, and off he goes to name-a-network. Conan, realizes he's got a knife sticking out of his back, says I'm outta here too. That leaves NBC with...nobody. Stewart's premium soars.
Stewart's contract is up in another year, and if we were playing a reasonable board game here, we'd say he'll resign at Comedy Central (probably for one more year, awaiting Dave's decision.) But we're not playing a reasonable board game here: This is all wild speculation, goofy supposition, nutty spit-balling.
But then, we are talking about TV here - spitballing happens all the time.
Dave moves to Indiana Avenue...Jay stays at Pacific Avenue...Conan goes to jail...Jon lands on free parking...